CALGARY, AB – Two years into her premiership, Danielle Smith‘s personal popularity is on the rise, and her United Conservative Party (UCP) would cruise to an increased majority government if an election were held today, a recent CBC News poll indicates. The findings suggest an extended “honeymoon” period with Alberta voters, a phenomenon not seen in the province for decades.
The survey, conducted by Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown for CBC News between May 7 and 21, 2025, polled 1,200 Albertans. It shows the UCP with the support of 52 per cent of decided and leaning voters. While this is a slight dip from their 52.6 per cent vote share in the May 2023 election, the poll projects this support would translate into a commanding 61 seats in the 87-seat legislature, a significant increase from the 49 seats they currently hold.
“It’s really quite amazing that two years in, she continues to enjoy a honeymoon,” Brown commented on the findings. “We haven’t seen a honeymoon last this long for a politician since the Ralph Klein days.”
In contrast, the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Naheed Nenshi, would secure 38 per cent of the vote, potentially dropping from their current 38 seats to 26. Seven per cent of respondents remained undecided.
“The numbers are soft for the NDP right now,” Brown stated in an interview with CBC News. “Approval numbers for the leader are soft right now. It is tough times for the NDP.”
Premier Smith’s personal image among Albertans has also seen improvement. Her overall favourable impression rating climbed to 4.7 out of 10, up from 4.5 last year. According to the poll, four in ten Albertans gave Smith high marks (between seven and ten out of ten) for her performance. This is a notable shift from when she first became UCP leader in the fall of 2022, at which time 54 per cent of Albertans said they were not at all impressed by her.
“When Danielle Smith was first elected leader of the UCP, Albertans were very cautious,” Brown observed. “The longer that they know Danielle Smith, the more comfortable they’re getting with her.”
Voters who spoke with CBC News in Calgary expressed a range of opinions. Natasha Smith, a voter, told CBC News, “She’d probably make a really good prime minister, actually.” Calgarian Lisa Farrell also praised the premier’s backing of the oil and gas sector, saying, “I think she’s really good. I think she’s doing a good job for the province and I think she’s standing up for us and sticking up for us.”
However, not all Albertans are impressed. Calgary voter Dave Gibson cited the UCP’s overhaul of Alberta’s health-care system as a point of concern. “She’s kind of pulling apart Alberta Health.… It’s not that broken. Don’t try and fix it.… So, I’m not a fan,” Gibson told CBC News. Despite such concerns, Smith’s assertive stance towards the federal government appears to resonate with many. Nearly seven in ten (69 per cent) of Albertans who approve of Smith’s efforts to reset the province’s relationship with Ottawa give her high marks.
The poll also provided insights into the public perception of NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, who took the party reins last summer. Nenshi received an average impression rating of 4.1 out of 10. While 27 per cent of Albertans gave the former Calgary mayor top marks, four in ten were not impressed, and ten per cent remained unsure.
“When Rachel Notley resigned and we heard that Nenshi was going to be running, there was all sorts of excitement. He was seen as a powerful political communicator,” Brown said. “But things seem to have fizzled out since the leadership race. He’s having a hard time winning Albertans over at the moment.” Brown further suggested Nenshi needs to better define his political standing for Albertans, stating, “There’s people who don’t quite know where he stands, so I think his biggest problem is to get Albertans to understand what he is as leader of the NDP. And then I think he has to show Albertans that he can hold views that are closer to the centre, that he’s not a left-wing extremist on every issue they care about.”
Interestingly, the poll indicates a potential shift in traditionally NDP-leaning Edmonton. Support for the NDP in the capital, which was 58 per cent in the 2023 election, now shows a statistical tie with the UCP, with 47 per cent of Edmontonians saying they’d vote NDP and 44 per cent preferring the UCP. In Calgary, UCP support has risen to 52 per cent from 50 per cent in 2023, while NDP support has dropped to 39 per cent from 48 per cent.
The UCP also appears to be gaining traction with younger voters (ages 18 to 24), with 47 per cent favoring the UCP compared to 39 per cent for the NDP. Brown commented on this trend, saying, “Younger men are more attracted to right-wing parties right now. And views on separatism are really important in determining where people stand. So, young people who like the idea of separatism, they’re definitely on the right end of the spectrum. And the fact that there are young Albertans wanting to separate, that’s bad news for the NDP.”
Per the CBC: The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger. The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.
