Edmonton, AB – Alberta’s political landscape is set up for a significant shift this fall, as NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi prepares to make his debut in the legislature following a decisive by-election victory. His win in Edmonton-Strathcona, considered the safest New Democrat riding in the province, sets the stage for direct challenges to Premier Danielle Smith in the Alberta legislature, while some results suggest a potential cooling of separatist sentiment.
Mr. Nenshi, who secured the leadership of the Alberta NDP a year ago but lacked a seat as an MLA, now gains a tangible platform. His victory on Monday night means that come October, he will be able to directly engage Premier Danielle Smith in legislative debate, significantly boosting his visibility across the province. He faced minimal opposition in Edmonton-Strathcona, a riding previously held by NDP stalwart and former premier Rachel Notley.
Meanwhile, a second by-election in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills delivered a landslide win for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP), indicating that the province’s independence movement may not have the loyal support some anticipated. Tara Sawyer, Premier Smith’s chosen candidate, secured the win with a commanding 61 per cent of valid votes cast. The separatist Republican Party of Alberta, led by Cameron Davies, finished in third place in the riding, trailing both the UCP and the NDP. The NDP also successfully retained the third by-election seat up for grabs on Monday, in Edmonton-Ellerslie.
Despite recent polls suggesting approximately 30 per cent of Albertans support the province’s separation from Canada, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills being widely regarded as a separatist stronghold, Mr. Davies garnered roughly 17 per cent of the vote, falling short of his party’s target of about 20 per cent.
Mr. Davies feels that these results do not signify a decline in the separatist movement. Instead, he suggested that many residents favouring independence chose to back the UCP, believing the governing party is the most effective means to advance their separatist aspirations. Mr. Davies described these voters as placing “false hope” in the UCP. He confirmed that the Republican Party of Alberta intends to contest the next provincial election, anticipated in 2027.
“Last night was just the starting line,” Mr. Davies stated in an interview on Tuesday.
Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, indicated that Premier Smith should feel reassured by the Republican Party of Alberta’s performance. “There isn’t a wave of separatist discontent that threatens the UCP immediately,” Prof. Young commented. “That said, every conservative Premier since the 1990s has had to be careful about rising support to their right and the danger of vote-splitting.”
In response to the political climate, Premier Smith announced on Tuesday another “listening tour” initiative, dubbed the Alberta Next panel. This 15-person panel, chaired by the Premier herself, is aimed at engaging residents frustrated with Ottawa and will recommend referendum questions for Albertans to vote on in 2026.
Speaking to reporters in Calgary, Premier Smith explicitly stated that the panel is also intended to mitigate the risk of vote-splitting between the UCP and parties advocating for independence. “We also have to address the things that are causing the rise in that sentiment,” she said. “The sentiment that you’re seeing was created in Ottawa.”
Third parties have historically faced significant challenges in establishing themselves in Alberta’s political landscape. The UCP itself was formed out of a strategic merger of predecessor conservative parties, driven by the fear of continued vote-splitting – a dynamic that contributed to Rachel Notley’s NDP forming government in 2015.
The UCP is also navigating internal dynamics, with two MLAs elected under its banner in 2023 now sitting as Independents. Peter Guthrie, a former cabinet minister, was removed from the UCP caucus in April after he voted with the Official Opposition in favour of a public inquiry into allegations of government interference in the health care system’s procurement and contracting process. Scott Sinclair was similarly removed in March after stating he could not support the government’s budget.
