Calgary, AB – Alberta’s political landscape is experiencing significant shifts as new referendum rules, effective July 4, intensify both separatist and competing status-quo movements. These developments are bringing long-simmering tensions to a head, particularly in the wake of recent legislative changes and ongoing debates surrounding the province’s economic future within Canada.
The separatist Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) officially filed its petition on Friday, July 4, initiating a 120-day period for the organization to collect 177,000 signatures. This aligns with the newly lowered threshold for triggering a referendum, which now stands at 10% of eligible voters from the most recent general election. The extended signature collection period, now 120 days from the previous 90, is a direct result of the Election Statutes Amendments Act.
Premier Danielle Smith introduced the changes to ease referendums on April 29, a move she stated would have occurred irrespective of the April 28 federal election. Smith acknowledged last week that separatist sentiments in her province are at an all-time high and urged the federal government to take the movement seriously.
A competing petition, spearheaded by Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Progressive Conservative MLA and deputy premier, aims to keep Alberta within Canada. Approved on June 30, before the new rules took effect, Lukaszuk’s petition requires 294,000 signatures. Jeff Rath, a Calgary lawyer leading the APP independence movement, dismissed the competing petition on Thursday as “a bad joke” not to be taken seriously.
The APP released a draft fiscal plan at a downtown Calgary hotel on Thursday, outlining a vision for an independent Alberta. The 45-page Value of Freedom document projects a massive annual surplus, the introduction of a new currency, and hundreds of billions in oil-fueled economic activity if Alberta becomes an independent nation. The document suggests the province could retain up to $75 billion in federal tax revenues annually by separating, leading to an estimated net fiscal gain of $47 billion with federal transfers returned.
Rath told the Western Standard that “over 70% of Danielle Smith’s base now favour independence” because they “can do basic math,” referring to the APP’s fiscal plan. A May 2025 Angus Reid poll found 36% of Albertans support separation from Canada, with roughly half supporting an independence referendum. Notably, nearly two-thirds (65%) of UCP voters want the province leaving Canada.
“The only members of Danielle Smith’s base that don’t support independence are the ones that have had their faces in the trough for decades, and who are served very well by the status quo,” Rath stated.
APP’s fiscal draft assumes Alberta exits Canada by 2026, launching parallel institutions such as a provincial police force and a new currency. Despite acknowledging potential high costs and political risks, the authors of the document argue that independence offers overwhelming economic upside. APP research, citing sources like Statistics Canada and the Government of Alberta, indicates a potential annual surplus of $23.6 to $45.5 billion. Rath also noted that the province would save $47 billion by ending equalization payments.
Pushback notwithstanding, Rath said that his group’s separation question will proceed, asserting it is a constitutional, not merely a policy, challenge. Elections Alberta clarifies that referendums can cover both constitutional and non-constitutional questions.
Premier Smith, despite not personally supporting Alberta separation, has said she would allow a referendum on it in 2026.
In related developments, on Thursday, Alberta’s premier urged the Carney government to revoke several federal climate policies. These include the oil tanker ban on B.C.’s north coast, the Impact Assessment Act, the oil and gas production cap, the industrial carbon tax, and electric vehicle mandates.
Carney has not agreed to remove the Impact Assessment Act or the oil and gas production cap. Instead, his government introduced the One Canadian Economy Act to advance national interest projects, and he remains open to a new pipeline if “consensus exists among provinces.” Carney also campaigned on strengthening the industrial carbon tax, amid global talks of carbon tariffs on imports.
“Canada is stronger when we work together,” Carney told reporters on May 6, vowing to “create more opportunities in the energy sector for hardworking Albertans.”
Background from earlier in the year sheds further light on the intensity of the debate. A May 9, 2025, Angus Reid poll revealed that about one-third of Albertans are at least leaning toward voting for separation, with that number rising to 65 percent among UCP voters, raising questions of party unity. Premier Smith admitted in a CTV interview that a separation referendum is an “outlet” for angry conservatives, hoping that the new legislation making it easier to vote will keep the UCP united. However, some believe it may be too late for that.
Cameron Davies, leader of the Republican Party of Alberta and a former UCP organizer, is actively campaigning across the province, signing up members who disagree with Smith’s position on staying in Canada. “The UCP has decided that they are Canada first, not Alberta first. And so, there are many, many UCP supporters from every part of the province who have decided that the Republican Party best fits their values,” Davies stated. He questioned, “I am not entirely sure how you can lead a province and a party if 65 per cent of your membership and your base supports something that the leadership of your party does not.”
Political scientist Duane Bratt anticipates a referendum vote will occur in 2026, predicting it will be bitterly divisive among Albertans and could create a wedge within the UCP. Bratt noted that while some within the party express separatist leanings, others believe such a move is “the stupidest thing we have ever heard,” emphasizing concerns about low taxes and keeping the NDP out of office over leaving Canada. He highlighted the contradictions in Smith’s statements as she attempts to manage these divergent viewpoints within her party.
Beyond the ongoing hockey playoffs, Alberta separation is clearly a dominant topic of discussion in the province. According to the Angus Reid poll, a majority of those leaning towards a “leave” vote in a hypothetical referendum indicated they would be more likely to vote to “stay” if the federal government built an east to west pipeline, removed the emissions cap on oil and gas production, and repealed Bill C-69 – legislation requiring resource projects to be assessed for environmental, health, social, and economic impacts, and ensuring respect for Indigenous rights.
